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With Tesla shares down ~30 percent so far this year, much of the bearish calculus around the stock is likely already priced in. Now, one analyst thinks that the EV giant's poor quarterly deliveries numbers for Q1'25 would likely result in a final flush, so to say, constituting a nadir for the struggling stock and setting the stage for a narrative reset.
Before delving into actual delivery numbers for Q1 2025, do note that, as per Tesla's IR-compiled consensus estimate, Wall Street analysts expected the EV giant to have delivered 377,600 units in the just-concluded quarter. On the other hand, as per Bloomberg's compilation of analysts' estimates, the consensus number is currently pegged at 390,600 units. Do note that Bloomberg's compilation might be skewed by some estimates that have not been updated in weeks. Finally, Troy Teslike, who is known for his fairly accurate projections of Tesla's quarterly deliveries, expected the EV giant to have recorded sales of just 355,000 units in Q1.
Tesla Delivers 336,681 Units Q1 2025
This brings us to the crux of the matter. Just moments ago, Tesla disclosed that it managed to deliver 336,681 units in Q1 2025 against a production level of 362,615 units. For the benefit of those who might not be aware, Tesla had delivered 495,570 units in the fourth quarter of 2024 against a production level of 459,445 units.
Tesla's Quarterly Deliveries
Under the hood, Tesla delivered 323,800 units of Model 3/Y, and 12,881 units of other models, including the Cybertruck.
Hi everyone. Analyst consensus for Tesla's full-year deliveries has dropped from 1.90M to 1.85M since my tweet below on March 23rd. Here’s the latest:
• My Estimate: Below 1.68M units
• Analyst Consensus: 1.85M units
• Tesla's Target for 2025: 1.79M units
• 2024 Deliveries:… https://t.co/7oqTKmKp6K— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) March 29, 2025
Also, do note that Wall Street analysts now expect Tesla to deliver just 1.85 million vehicles in the entire 2025.
As a refresher, Tesla sales have struggled lately in the face of stiff competition out of China and politically motivated boycotts in the EU and the US. As we recently reported, a whopping 94 percent of Germans recently surveyed expressed negative views on Tesla after Elon Musk alienated a large segment of the German population by wholeheartedly supporting the far-right AfD party in recent elections. Meanwhile, in the US, Musk's DOGE-related activities continue to drive a political wedge into Tesla's brand image.
Coming back, at the end of Q4 2024, the company’s Days of Finished Goods Inventory (also known as global vehicle inventory days of supply) metric stood at 12 (11.70 to be more precise), based on an inventory level of 77,330 units and an average daily delivery rate of 6,607.6 vehicles (assuming 75 working days in a quarter). For Q1 2025, Tesla’s Days of FG Inventory metric has increased to 23, based on a new inventory level of 103,264 units and an average daily delivery rate of 4,489.08 vehicles.
$TSLA WS 1Q consensus estimates will be a topic of debate tomorrow when TSLA releases its 1Q production and delivery report. The freshest estimates are the $TSLA IR-compiled summary released last week, which showed 377.6K. Bloomberg consensus estimates show 390.6K but includes… pic.twitter.com/Nm7HgOBjv0
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) April 1, 2025
Finally, as stated earlier, Future Fund's Gary Black thinks today's deliveries print sets the stage for a gradual reset in the prevailing narrative around Tesla, allowing investors to focus on the upcoming launch of unsupervised FSD in Austin, Texas, this June. Nonetheless, do note that Trump's 25 percent tariffs on all vehicle and auto parts imports complicates Tesla's efforts to launch a cheaper hatchback model in H1 2025.
